Track record

Once a minute the process behind the radar logs the ten covered mints under 30 seconds old with the highest published rug odds and the ten under 15 minutes with the highest published graduation odds. Every night we score those calls against what happened, by the same label rules as every paid card (/v1/labels). This page leads with calibration: does the number we publish match how often it came true. The hit rate of each list follows, beside its matched base rate. Outcomes settle late, so the last three days can still move. Validation tables behind the probabilities: /v1/calibration. JSON, which starts with a summary: /v1/track-record.

scored 45 day(s), generated 2026-10-27T00:45:42Z · 1 small-sample day(s) · 62960 snapshots logged

Calibration of the published numbers

Rug odds (the probability of a rug within 300 s, as shown on the first call that put a mint under 30 s old on the radar's rug list). ECE above the 0.05 limit on 14 of 45 scored days (2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30). The rug map in service, generated on 2026-10-01, replaced the one of 2026-09-23; the withdrawal rule counts days after a refit, so flagged days up to 2026-10-01 belong to the number published before it. Last 7 days: within the limit on all 7. Mean ECE 0.072 over all scored days, 0.019 over the last 7. Median Brier lift over the matched base +33.9% (+42.8% over the last 7). Latest scored day 2026-10-26: mean published 40.3% against realized 41.4%, matched base rate 27.3%, ECE 0.016 (within the limit), Brier lift +42.8%.

Graduation odds (the probability of a true graduation, as shown on the first call that put a mint under 15 min old on the radar's graduation list). ECE above the 0.05 limit on 1 of 45 scored days (2026-09-12). Last 7 days: within the limit on all 7. Mean ECE 0.016 over all scored days, 0.007 over the last 7. Median Brier lift over the matched base +28.6% (+41.4% over the last 7). Latest scored day 2026-10-26: mean published 3.0% against realized 2.7%, matched base rate 2.2%, ECE 0.005 (within the limit), Brier lift +27.1%.

Outside comparison: /compare scores our radar's first calls and RugCheck's public report against the same settled outcomes. The two were asked at different moments (ours seconds after launch, RugCheck's about a day later), and the outcome labels are ours.

The rug number passes through a live recalibration map (fit window, validation and date: /v1/calibration, under production). A day is scored with the number as it was published that day, so days before a map change stay as they were. Accountability rule for the rug number: the rug number is withdrawn (published as null with a reason starting recalibration_unavailable) when its live 10-bin ECE exceeds 0.05 on 3 of 7 scored days after a refit; each day's live ECE is published at /v1/track-record.

Columns: calls scored = first calls with a settled outcome; mean published and realized are over those same calls; matched base rate = the like-for-like rate (non-mayhem launches still alive at each call's age whose label came true); Brier lift = the published numbers' improvement in Brier score over forecasting the matched base rate for every call.

Rug odds, day by day

UTC daycalls scoredmean publishedrealizedmatched base rateECE (10-bin)vs 0.05 limitBrierBrier lift (matched base)
2026-10-26509740.3%41.4%27.3%0.016within0.148+42.8%
2026-10-25456640.3%40.5%26.0%0.027within0.150+42.1%
2026-10-24471942.9%41.9%27.1%0.016within0.158+39.4%
2026-10-23455442.0%42.9%27.4%0.017within0.157+40.8%
2026-10-22486743.3%44.0%26.1%0.018within0.155+43.4%
2026-10-21560241.1%42.1%25.2%0.019within0.150+43.7%
2026-10-20592840.0%41.6%25.5%0.024within0.151+42.8%
2026-10-19599139.8%40.1%26.1%0.020within0.144+43.4%
2026-10-18585241.7%41.1%30.3%0.022within0.154+38.4%
2026-10-17599840.4%40.3%28.8%0.023within0.149+40.4%
2026-10-16599644.1%45.1%29.4%0.022within0.164+38.8%
2026-10-15603142.8%44.7%34.2%0.027within0.160+37.3%
2026-10-14575644.2%43.8%35.6%0.045within0.174+30.0%
2026-10-13610542.0%43.2%35.5%0.020within0.153+37.7%
2026-10-12752639.2%40.8%32.7%0.021within0.147+39.4%
2026-10-11704538.3%39.8%33.6%0.018within0.147+38.8%
2026-10-10791135.3%35.7%30.2%0.015within0.140+38.9%
2026-10-09756341.8%42.7%36.5%0.017within0.159+35.1%
2026-10-08805841.5%44.7%33.3%0.041within0.159+37.6%
2026-10-07851437.9%39.6%32.7%0.024within0.144+39.7%
2026-10-06809039.7%41.8%36.4%0.034within0.154+36.4%
2026-10-05888438.2%37.7%34.4%0.028within0.145+37.5%
2026-10-04878940.5%38.6%36.6%0.044within0.159+32.2%
2026-10-03916437.0%37.4%36.7%0.009within0.152+34.0%
2026-10-02753944.4%46.0%42.2%0.020within0.173+29.1%
2026-10-01 †742744.2%49.1%42.4%0.049within0.175+29.8%
2026-09-30 †734841.9%47.4%41.6%0.055above0.184+26.0%
2026-09-29 †685842.2%48.3%41.0%0.061above0.187+25.2%
2026-09-28 †728341.5%45.3%42.7%0.041within0.177+27.8%
2026-09-27 †685943.1%46.1%46.5%0.029within0.179+27.2%
2026-09-26 †841339.0%41.0%45.2%0.024within0.158+33.9%
2026-09-25 †690338.3%38.1%38.4%0.013within0.167+28.4%
2026-09-24 †701736.6%38.4%39.3%0.023within0.156+33.5%
2026-09-23 †698554.3%38.0%38.3%0.163above0.207+10.8%
2026-09-22 †701356.4%38.2%38.1%0.182above0.197+14.8%
2026-09-21 †734155.0%37.0%36.6%0.180above0.190+17.2%
2026-09-20 †678055.2%34.9%35.6%0.203above0.208+7.0%
2026-09-19 †726455.6%35.9%35.5%0.198above0.203+10.1%
2026-09-18 †699953.5%33.1%35.1%0.205above0.204+6.9%
2026-09-17 †737456.1%37.1%38.3%0.190above0.190+16.8%
2026-09-16 †633261.4%41.5%43.6%0.199above0.212+12.2%
2026-09-15 †704457.3%37.4%37.3%0.199above0.209+9.4%
2026-09-14 †615652.8%31.2%30.2%0.216above0.212+1.1%
2026-09-13 †527451.9%30.9%28.1%0.210above0.205+3.4%
2026-09-12 † (small sample)2937.3%13.8%25.8%0.235above0.192-48.5%

† Scored on the number published before the rug map generated on 2026-10-01: days up to that date (the day it was generated may include hours on the new map).

Graduation odds, day by day

UTC daycalls scoredmean publishedrealizedmatched base rateECE (10-bin)vs 0.05 limitBrierBrier lift (matched base)
2026-10-2619003.0%2.7%2.2%0.005within0.019+27.1%
2026-10-2514992.9%3.4%2.2%0.009within0.019+41.4%
2026-10-2416683.9%3.8%2.5%0.003within0.021+44.3%
2026-10-2318824.8%5.2%2.6%0.006within0.026+47.1%
2026-10-2217954.2%4.6%2.1%0.006within0.023+48.0%
2026-10-2119443.5%3.9%1.8%0.010within0.026+32.4%
2026-10-2019894.2%4.5%1.7%0.009within0.028+35.9%
2026-10-1921533.2%3.5%1.7%0.010within0.024+28.6%
2026-10-1821123.0%3.5%2.1%0.006within0.017+50.3%
2026-10-1720223.2%3.4%2.3%0.005within0.020+38.2%
2026-10-1622602.8%2.6%2.1%0.006within0.019+25.4%
2026-10-1522642.6%2.9%2.4%0.008within0.023+19.3%
2026-10-1421782.4%3.1%3.1%0.009within0.023+23.3%
2026-10-1321563.0%4.1%3.1%0.013within0.029+26.8%
2026-10-1225092.3%3.4%2.6%0.012within0.027+18.6%
2026-10-1122682.2%2.5%2.8%0.011within0.021+12.0%
2026-10-1023902.1%1.8%2.5%0.006within0.016+12.4%
2026-10-0927772.4%3.1%3.1%0.007within0.022+26.5%
2026-10-0827142.4%3.6%2.6%0.014within0.028+21.2%
2026-10-0726712.1%4.0%2.9%0.021within0.033+13.0%
2026-10-0628442.2%2.9%3.1%0.010within0.023+19.5%
2026-10-0527022.8%3.9%2.7%0.015within0.030+18.4%
2026-10-0429232.8%3.4%3.3%0.013within0.027+18.1%
2026-10-0327213.2%4.3%3.3%0.012within0.030+26.7%
2026-10-0226293.4%4.3%3.8%0.016within0.034+18.6%
2026-10-0127772.3%3.2%3.8%0.009within0.024+24.0%
2026-09-3030442.1%3.0%3.9%0.010within0.023+20.2%
2026-09-2933472.1%3.1%3.7%0.011within0.022+26.9%
2026-09-2839142.2%3.9%4.1%0.017within0.027+29.2%
2026-09-2740481.9%2.6%4.1%0.008within0.016+36.4%
2026-09-2620063.7%5.2%3.6%0.020within0.039+22.4%
2026-09-2515864.8%5.6%4.2%0.013within0.038+29.6%
2026-09-2416076.2%8.3%4.7%0.029within0.046+41.6%
2026-09-2314735.7%7.5%4.5%0.024within0.044+38.0%
2026-09-2212805.3%6.5%4.6%0.017within0.038+37.5%
2026-09-2115184.9%7.7%4.0%0.031within0.051+30.4%
2026-09-2012305.3%9.5%4.8%0.046within0.066+25.9%
2026-09-1913194.8%6.5%4.2%0.019within0.043+30.7%
2026-09-1812726.1%8.8%4.2%0.034within0.051+38.4%
2026-09-1713314.7%6.8%4.1%0.024within0.041+36.6%
2026-09-1613555.1%6.4%4.7%0.024within0.039+35.3%
2026-09-1514624.4%6.6%3.7%0.026within0.041+34.9%
2026-09-1411143.8%6.1%3.9%0.026within0.035+40.4%
2026-09-139803.7%5.2%3.9%0.018within0.022+54.8%
2026-09-12 (small sample)343.3%5.9%4.6%0.069above0.064-16.0%

The radar's lists: hit rate beside the matched base rate

The all-launch rate is not the comparator for a list: it counts every launch of the day, including mayhem launches and the instant bundles that die before any call, while a list is judged at the call's age on non-mayhem mints still alive then, which is what the matched base rate measures.

Median of the daily values, rug list: hit rate 40.8% against a matched base rate of 35.5% (last 7 days: 42.7% against 26.1%). Graduation list: hit rate 3.9% against a matched base rate of 3.3% (last 7 days: 3.9% against 2.2%).

UTC dayrug list: mints flaggedrugged within 300 shit ratematched base rategraduation list: mints flaggedgraduatedhit ratematched base ratesnapshotssampling
2026-10-265303216440.8%27.3%1900512.7%2.2%1430once a minute
2026-10-254601190741.4%26.0%1499513.4%2.2%1434once a minute
2026-10-244739205343.3%27.1%1668643.8%2.5%1434once a minute
2026-10-235005201340.2%27.4%1882985.2%2.6%1436once a minute
2026-10-224917221145.0%26.1%1795834.6%2.1%1434once a minute
2026-10-215652243243.0%25.2%1944763.9%1.8%1430once a minute
2026-10-205972255242.7%25.5%1989904.5%1.7%1434once a minute
2026-10-196027248241.2%26.1%2153753.5%1.7%1436once a minute
2026-10-185870245341.8%30.3%2112743.5%2.1%1437once a minute
2026-10-176022242840.3%28.8%2022683.4%2.3%1436once a minute
2026-10-166020273445.4%29.4%2260582.6%2.1%1426once a minute
2026-10-156052274645.4%34.2%2264662.9%2.4%1429once a minute
2026-10-145779258044.6%35.6%2178683.1%3.1%1425once a minute
2026-10-136131268343.8%35.5%2156884.1%3.1%1433once a minute
2026-10-127550309341.0%32.7%2509853.4%2.6%1432once a minute
2026-10-117067282640.0%33.6%2268562.5%2.8%1433once a minute
2026-10-107937283435.7%30.2%2390441.8%2.5%1435once a minute
2026-10-097587323642.6%36.5%2777853.1%3.1%1428once a minute
2026-10-088086362044.8%33.3%2714993.6%2.6%1431once a minute
2026-10-078542339539.7%32.7%26711064.0%2.9%1436once a minute
2026-10-068687339839.1%36.4%2844842.9%3.1%1432once a minute
2026-10-059017338437.5%34.4%27021043.9%2.7%1435once a minute
2026-10-048852342438.7%36.6%2923993.4%3.3%1433once a minute
2026-10-039216343537.3%36.7%27211164.3%3.3%1428once a minute
2026-10-027585347945.9%42.2%26291144.3%3.8%1431once a minute
2026-10-017462369249.5%42.4%2777883.2%3.8%1426once a minute
2026-09-307841356645.5%41.6%3044903.0%3.9%1447once a minute
2026-09-296945334548.2%41.0%33471043.1%3.7%1427once a minute
2026-09-287334336145.8%42.7%39141513.9%4.1%1421once a minute
2026-09-276900317045.9%46.5%40481042.6%4.1%1417once a minute
2026-09-268472346040.8%45.2%20061055.2%3.6%1421once a minute
2026-09-256930264738.2%38.4%1586895.6%4.2%1424once a minute
2026-09-247045270638.4%39.3%16071348.3%4.7%1421once a minute
2026-09-237010266538.0%38.3%14731107.5%4.5%1428once a minute
2026-09-227031268938.2%38.1%1280836.5%4.6%1436once a minute
2026-09-217362272937.1%36.6%15181177.7%4.0%1436once a minute
2026-09-206797238035.0%35.6%12301179.5%4.8%1436once a minute
2026-09-197280261135.9%35.5%1319866.5%4.2%1434once a minute
2026-09-187018231733.0%35.1%12721128.8%4.2%1436once a minute
2026-09-177388274337.1%38.3%1331916.8%4.1%1438once a minute
2026-09-166358263641.5%43.6%1355876.4%4.7%1439once a minute
2026-09-157067263737.3%37.3%1462976.6%3.7%1439once a minute
2026-09-146168192131.1%30.2%1114686.1%3.9%1436once a minute
2026-09-135292163030.8%28.1%980515.2%3.9%1230request-driven, then once a minute from 2026-09-13T03:24:30Z
2026-09-12 (small sample)29413.8%25.8%3425.9%4.6%6request-driven (a row when someone called the radar)

All-launch base rates (context for the day, not a comparator)

Every launch of the UTC day, mayhem launches and the instant bundles that die within seconds included: the share whose rug label fired within 330 s of launch, and the share that truly graduated.

UTC daylaunchesrugged within 330 s of launchgraduated
2026-10-264666448.1%1.3%
2026-10-254032151.1%1.2%
2026-10-244200851.6%1.4%
2026-10-234870448.3%1.4%
2026-10-224652146.7%1.3%
2026-10-214888645.0%1.2%
2026-10-205085745.6%1.1%
2026-10-195219647.1%1.1%
2026-10-184331649.7%1.3%
2026-10-174481949.5%1.4%
2026-10-164982250.9%1.3%
2026-10-154642157.3%1.3%
2026-10-144160056.9%1.7%
2026-10-134263856.3%1.8%
2026-10-124956852.4%1.6%
2026-10-114261855.5%1.6%
2026-10-104841752.7%1.5%
2026-10-094702156.3%1.8%
2026-10-085547653.1%1.6%
2026-10-075570255.2%1.6%
2026-10-065315553.6%1.7%
2026-10-054933752.8%1.7%
2026-10-045068856.2%1.9%
2026-10-035212357.3%1.8%
2026-10-024664561.6%2.0%
2026-10-015035063.3%1.9%
2026-09-304904260.1%1.9%
2026-09-294332760.8%1.9%
2026-09-284226661.1%2.1%
2026-09-273790864.5%1.9%
2026-09-264305862.4%1.9%
2026-09-253457658.5%2.2%
2026-09-243451059.7%2.4%
2026-09-233464459.8%2.2%
2026-09-223298857.4%2.5%
2026-09-213456557.0%2.3%
2026-09-203067255.3%2.6%
2026-09-193190154.7%2.4%
2026-09-183600357.5%2.2%
2026-09-173888461.2%2.1%
2026-09-163386764.3%2.2%
2026-09-153427257.0%2.1%
2026-09-142976051.1%2.2%
2026-09-132480645.4%2.4%
2026-09-12 (small sample)2825749.6%2.2%

Method

Facts from our own capture, not advice. Days with fewer than 100 flagged mints are marked as small samples. Logging was request-driven from 2026-09-12T17:10:00Z and runs once a minute since 2026-09-13T03:24:30Z.