{"ok":true,"schema_version":"2.0","generated_at":"2026-10-27T23:28:12Z","t":1793143692.4422588,"coverage":"full","data":{"summary":{"ece_days_flagged":14,"ece_days_scored":45,"mean_ece":0.0725,"brier_lift_median":0.3388,"matched_base_median":0.3546,"hit_rate_median":0.4081,"ece_flagged_days":["2026-09-12","2026-09-13","2026-09-14","2026-09-15","2026-09-16","2026-09-17","2026-09-18","2026-09-19","2026-09-20","2026-09-21","2026-09-22","2026-09-23","2026-09-29","2026-09-30"],"ece_limit":0.05,"subject":"published rug odds: P(rug within 300 s) on the first call that put a mint under 30 s old on the radar's rug list","first_day":"2026-09-12","last_day":"2026-10-26","days_in_window":45,"last_7_days":{"days":7,"first_day":"2026-10-20","ece_days_flagged":0,"ece_days_scored":7,"mean_ece":0.0195,"brier_lift_median":0.4279,"matched_base_median":0.2605,"hit_rate_median":0.4273,"ece_flagged_days":[]},"rug_map":{"generated_at":"2026-10-01T02:25:08Z","generated_on":"2026-10-01","previous_generated_at":"2026-09-23T18:57:15Z","flagged_days_up_to_generated_on":["2026-09-12","2026-09-13","2026-09-14","2026-09-15","2026-09-16","2026-09-17","2026-09-18","2026-09-19","2026-09-20","2026-09-21","2026-09-22","2026-09-23","2026-09-29","2026-09-30"],"flagged_days_after":[],"ece_days_scored_after":25,"sentence":"The rug map in service, generated on 2026-10-01, replaced the one of 2026-09-23; the withdrawal rule counts days after a refit, so flagged days up to 2026-10-01 belong to the number published before it."},"graduation":{"subject":"published graduation odds: P(true graduation) on the first call that put a mint under 15 min old on the radar's graduation list","ece_days_flagged":1,"ece_days_scored":45,"mean_ece":0.016,"brier_lift_median":0.2862,"matched_base_median":0.0328,"hit_rate_median":0.0391,"ece_flagged_days":["2026-09-12"],"last_7_days":{"days":7,"first_day":"2026-10-20","ece_days_flagged":0,"ece_days_scored":7,"mean_ece":0.0068,"brier_lift_median":0.4142,"matched_base_median":0.0218,"hit_rate_median":0.0391,"ece_flagged_days":[]}},"links":{"head_to_head":"/compare","head_to_head_json":"/v1/compare","calibration":"/v1/calibration","labels":"/v1/labels"},"definitions":{"ece_days_scored":"UTC days with a calibration error (first calls with a settled outcome)","ece_days_flagged":"scored days whose 10-bin ECE was above ece_limit (the day's ece_flag); ece_flagged_days names them","mean_ece":"unweighted mean of the scored days' 10-bin ECE","brier_lift_median":"median over days of brier_lift = 1 - Brier(published) / Brier(the matched base rate as the forecast for every call); above 0 = the published numbers have the lower Brier score","matched_base_median":"median over days of base_rate_matched, the like-for-like base rate: non-mayhem launches still alive at each call's age whose label came true","hit_rate_median":"median over days of hit_rate, the share of the day's distinct flagged mints whose label came true; read it beside matched_base_median, not beside base_rate_all_launches","last_7_days":"the same fields over the last 7 scored days","rug_map":"the recalibration map the rug number is served through, read from the recalibration document the API loads (generated_at, the previous map's generated_at when present) with the days above the limit up to and after its generation date; null while the document is not loaded"}},"generated_at":"2026-10-27T00:45:42Z","log_rows":62960,"log_rows_skipped_before_start":16,"horizon_s":300.0,"ece_limit":0.05,"method":"What is scored: once a minute the process behind the radar logs two lists, the ten covered mints under 30 seconds old with the highest published rug odds and the ten covered mints under 15 minutes old with the highest published graduation odds (request-driven from 2026-09-12T17:10:00Z, once a minute since 2026-09-13T03:24:30Z). After each complete UTC day every distinct mint on a list is scored once, on its first call of that day. The truth label is our own rule. Both labels come from our own capture and launch table by the public rules at /v1/labels: rug = our rug rule fired within 300 s after the call; graduation = the mint truly graduated. No outside party set these labels or scored these calls. Calibration: the 10-bin ECE puts the day's scored first calls into ten equal bins of published probability and averages, weighted by calls, the gap between each bin's mean published value and its realized rate; a day above 0.05 is flagged. Scored first calls are those with a settled outcome, and mean published and realized are over the same calls. Brier lift = 1 - (Brier score of the published numbers / Brier score of forecasting the matched base rate for every call); above zero means the published numbers have the lower Brier score. These figures describe the mints the radar's two lists named, not every launch. Matched base rate and hit rate: the matched base rate is the like-for-like comparator for the radar's lists, the share of the day's non-mayhem launches still alive at each call's age whose label came true, averaged over the day's scored calls. The hit rate is the share of the day's distinct flagged mints whose label came true (rug: by 300 s after the first call, so a rug that fired before the call counts as a hit and a mint whose outcome is not settled yet counts as a miss; graduation: the mint graduated). It is read beside the matched base rate, not beside the all-launch rate. Expect the two to be close: the rug list names the ten highest-odds covered mints under 30 s once a minute, about seven thousand distinct mints a day, near every launch that reaches the call age, so the list is close to a census and its hit rate equals the base by construction. The odds' skill is in the calibration (ECE), the Brier lift and the precision at a threshold (the head-to-head at /compare), not in the list's hit rate. All-launch rate (secondary table): every launch of the UTC day, mayhem launches and instant bundles that die within seconds included; rug = a rug label within 330 s of launch (the 30 s age window plus the 300 s horizon), graduation = a true graduation. It describes the day, not the radar's lists, because launches that die before a call are in it and never reach a list. Outcomes settle late, so the last three days can still move. A day with fewer than 100 flagged mints is marked as a small sample. A day is scored with the numbers as the radar published them that day (the log keeps what it showed), so a later change of the recalibration map does not rewrite earlier days. Days before the log started are dropped. Comparator timing: the one comparison against an outside service is the head-to-head at /compare. Our call is made seconds after launch; RugCheck's public report is read about a day later, after the outcome, so the two are different moments, and the outcome labels there are ours too. Accountability rule for the rug number: the rug number is withdrawn (published as null with a reason starting recalibration_unavailable) when its live 10-bin ECE exceeds 0.05 on 3 of 7 scored days after a refit; each day's live ECE is published at 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minute","small_sample":false},{"day":"2026-10-25","rug":{"flagged":4601,"rugged_within_300s":1907,"hit_rate":0.4145,"mean_published_p":0.4043,"base_rate_all_launches":0.5108,"n_scored":4566,"realized":0.4054,"mean_published_p_scored":0.4032,"ece_10bin":0.0272,"ece_flag":false,"brier":0.14994,"base_rate_matched":0.2602,"brier_base_matched":0.25904,"brier_lift":0.4212,"rugged_before_call":56},"graduation":{"flagged":1499,"graduated":51,"hit_rate":0.034,"mean_published_p":0.0286,"base_rate_all_launches":0.0122,"n_scored":1499,"realized":0.034,"mean_published_p_scored":0.0286,"ece_10bin":0.0089,"ece_flag":false,"brier":0.01939,"base_rate_matched":0.022,"brier_base_matched":0.03309,"brier_lift":0.4142},"launches_that_day":40321,"snapshots":1434,"sampling":"once a minute","small_sample":false},{"day":"2026-10-26","rug":{"flagged":5303,"rugged_within_300s":2164,"hit_rate":0.4081,"mean_published_p":0.4083,"base_rate_all_launches":0.4813,"n_scored":5097,"realized":0.414,"mean_published_p_scored":0.4034,"ece_10bin":0.0159,"ece_flag":false,"brier":0.14805,"base_rate_matched":0.2725,"brier_base_matched":0.25887,"brier_lift":0.4281,"rugged_before_call":54},"graduation":{"flagged":1900,"graduated":51,"hit_rate":0.0268,"mean_published_p":0.0303,"base_rate_all_launches":0.0128,"n_scored":1900,"realized":0.0268,"mean_published_p_scored":0.0303,"ece_10bin":0.0047,"ece_flag":false,"brier":0.0191,"base_rate_matched":0.0218,"brier_base_matched":0.02621,"brier_lift":0.2714},"launches_that_day":46664,"snapshots":1430,"sampling":"once a minute","small_sample":false}],"small_sample_below":100,"base_rate_note":"base_rate_all_launches is the share of ALL of the day's launches (mayhem launches and the instant bundles that die within seconds included) whose label came true: for rug, a rug label within 330 s of launch (the radar's 30 s age window plus the 300 s horizon); for graduation, a true graduation. It is not the comparator for the radar's lists: a list is judged at the call's age on non-mayhem mints still alive then, and the launches that die before any call never reach it. The like-for-like comparator is base_rate_matched: the share of that day's non-mayhem launches still alive at each call's age whose label came true, averaged over the day's scored calls. ece_10bin is the day's calibration error of the published numbers on first calls with a settled outcome (ece_flag = above ece_limit), and brier_lift compares their Brier score with forecasting the matched base rate.","log_started":"2026-09-12T17:10:00Z","minute_logger_since":"2026-09-13T03:24:30Z"},"meta":{"source":"loophole tape","version":"0.9.0","schema_version":"2.0","feed_lag_s":0.254,"is_stale":false,"last_slot":462256496,"price_usd":null,"next":null,"labels":"/v1/labels","disclaimer":"Derived from public on-chain data (Solana for pump.fun, Robinhood Chain eip155:4663 for pons); labels are statistical, not guarantees; nothing here is financial advice. Sold as-is to programs, per request.","chain_lag_s":0.1,"slots_behind":0,"tape_behind":false}}