Each night we take the pump.fun mints our radar called the day before, draw up to 300 of them evenly over the day, read RugCheck's free public report for each, and score both against what happened to the mint: rugged within 300 seconds of launch, graduated. Window: 3 of the last 7 UTC days on record (2026-09-26 to 2026-09-28). We are one of the two sides, and the outcome labels are ours (see the caveats). Nothing here is ranked.
Our flag: rug odds of at least 50% at the first call (odds of 30% and 70% are in the JSON). RugCheck flag: the report lists at least one risk at level danger (second column) or at level warn or danger (third). Intervals are Wilson 95%.
| loophole tape radar, odds of at least 50% | RugCheck: any danger risk | RugCheck: any warn or danger risk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| mints sampled | 900 | 900 | 900 |
| no answer (share of sampled) | 14.6% (131 of 900, 95% interval 12.4 to 17.0%) | 0.1% (1 of 900, 95% interval 0.0 to 0.6%) | 0.1% (1 of 900, 95% interval 0.0 to 0.6%) |
| flagged (share of answered) | 43.3% (333 of 769, 95% interval 39.8 to 46.8%) | 5.8% (52 of 899, 95% interval 4.4 to 7.5%) | 7.7% (69 of 899, 95% interval 6.1 to 9.6%) |
| answered with a settled rug label | 765 | 892 | 892 |
| rugged within 300 s (share of answered, settled) | 46.5% (356 of 765, 95% interval 43.0 to 50.1%) | 46.9% (418 of 892, 95% interval 43.6 to 50.1%) | 46.9% (418 of 892, 95% interval 43.6 to 50.1%) |
| precision on rugs (flagged that rugged) | 74.2% (247 of 333, 95% interval 69.2 to 78.6%) | 5.8% (3 of 52, 95% interval 2.0 to 15.6%) | 20.3% (14 of 69, 95% interval 12.5 to 31.2%) |
| recall on rugs (rugged that were flagged) | 69.4% (247 of 356, 95% interval 64.4 to 73.9%) | 0.7% (3 of 418, 95% interval 0.2 to 2.1%) | 3.4% (14 of 418, 95% interval 2.0 to 5.5%) |
| counts behind precision and recall | flagged and rugged 247, flagged not rugged 86, unflagged rugged 109, unflagged not rugged 323 | flagged and rugged 3, flagged not rugged 49, unflagged rugged 415, unflagged not rugged 425 | flagged and rugged 14, flagged not rugged 55, unflagged rugged 404, unflagged not rugged 419 |
| graduated, among flagged | 1.2% (4 of 333, 95% interval 0.5 to 3.0%) | 44.2% (23 of 52, 95% interval 31.6 to 57.7%) | 34.8% (24 of 69, 95% interval 24.6 to 46.6%) |
| graduated, among unflagged | 4.4% (19 of 432, 95% interval 2.8 to 6.8%) | 0.6% (5 of 840, 95% interval 0.2 to 1.4%) | 0.5% (4 of 823, 95% interval 0.2 to 1.2%) |
| loophole tape radar | RugCheck: any danger risk | RugCheck: any warn or danger risk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| flagged (share of the common mints) | 43.4% (333 of 768, 95% interval 39.9 to 46.9%) | 5.9% (45 of 768, 95% interval 4.4 to 7.8%) | 7.8% (60 of 768, 95% interval 6.1 to 9.9%) |
| rugged within 300 s (settled) | 46.6% (356 of 764, 95% interval 43.1 to 50.1%) | 46.6% (356 of 764, 95% interval 43.1 to 50.1%) | 46.6% (356 of 764, 95% interval 43.1 to 50.1%) |
| precision on rugs | 74.2% (247 of 333, 95% interval 69.2 to 78.6%) | 6.7% (3 of 45, 95% interval 2.3 to 17.9%) | 21.7% (13 of 60, 95% interval 13.1 to 33.6%) |
| recall on rugs | 69.4% (247 of 356, 95% interval 64.4 to 73.9%) | 0.8% (3 of 356, 95% interval 0.3 to 2.5%) | 3.6% (13 of 356, 95% interval 2.1 to 6.2%) |
| day | sampled | rug label settled | rugged within 300 s | ours flagged | RugCheck danger flagged | ours no answer | RugCheck no answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 300 | 299 | 128 | 41.2% (115 of 279, 95% interval 35.6 to 47.1%) | 3.0% (9 of 300, 95% interval 1.6 to 5.6%) | 7.0% (21 of 300, 95% interval 4.6 to 10.5%) | 0.0% (0 of 300, 95% interval 0.0 to 1.3%) |
| 2026-09-27 | 300 | 297 | 146 | 46.5% (114 of 245, 95% interval 40.4 to 52.8%) | 6.0% (18 of 299, 95% interval 3.8 to 9.3%) | 18.3% (55 of 300, 95% interval 14.4 to 23.1%) | 0.3% (1 of 300, 95% interval 0.1 to 1.9%) |
| 2026-09-28 | 300 | 297 | 144 | 42.4% (104 of 245, 95% interval 36.4 to 48.7%) | 8.3% (25 of 300, 95% interval 5.7 to 12.0%) | 18.3% (55 of 300, 95% interval 14.4 to 23.1%) | 0.0% (0 of 300, 95% interval 0.0 to 1.3%) |
RugCheck requests by result: answered: 899, http_400: 1.
Risk names on RugCheck reports that carried any warn or danger risk (mints per name): Creator history of rugged tokens 26, Low Liquidity 25, Copycat token 15, High holder correlation 4, Name Mismatch 2, Symbol Mismatch 2.
The same figures as JSON (free): /v1/compare. Rows: /v1/compare/rows. Our own dated scorecard: /track-record.