loophole tape Robinhood Chain launch record

FERN · Fern

token 0x41abb76ddb7db1e39288607b28cefdd17a947638

curve 0xeb9703e097d5b0e27238e98862824d22ee345a3f

Launched	2026-09-26 22:38:50 UTC · block 73446864 · tx `0xba95…c75c`
Launchpad	pons v2 on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663)
Quote asset	ETH (native)
Creator tax	200 bps (2%), on every buy and sell
Trade fee	100 bps (1%), on every buy and sell
Deployer	`0x7ade…95f5`

Verdict by the public rule

Verdict: avoid

3 s after launch the holder structure matched the ring rule: 24 buyers, 76% of the tokens held by wallets that bought direct from the curve in shared 100 ms blocks (1 caution reason below).

3 s after launch the holder structure matched the ring rule: 24 buyers, 76% of the tokens held by wallets that bought direct from the curve in shared 100 ms blocks (ring_class_3s; base rate: our 2026-09-06/07 study: 14.5% of launches matched, 47% of those dumped, median terminal multiple 0.37x; refresh on ETH launches 2026-09-19..25 with a 3 s snapshot (n=28,147): 6.5% matched, 7.3% of those graduated against 0.81% of the rest, and the ones that did not graduate ended at a median 0.36 of their peak price)
93 min after launch the curve has not graduated and its price is 24% of its peak (2.01x the launch price now, 8.38x at the peak) (collapsed_not_graduated; base rate: of launches not graduated 30 min after launch (2026-09-06..26, n=375,631), 0.31% graduated later)

As of 2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC. The rule, its thresholds and the base rates it rests on are public at /v1/labels (rhc_verdict); it is not odds, not a prediction for this curve and not a safety verdict. The paid curve card gives the verdict at request time with the deployer record and an exact sell check.

Did it graduate? Outcome on the curve

Outcome	still on its bonding curve when we last read it (2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC); last curve trade observed 2026-09-27 00:11:12 UTC
Raised at the last state	0.6993 ETH of the 4.2 ETH graduation raise (16.7%)
Peak raised	75.8% of the graduation raise
Price vs launch (exact curve model)	2.01x at the last state, 8.38x at the peak
Curve trades observed	187 buys, 193 sells

A pons curve graduates when its real quote reserve reaches the graduation raise (4.2 ETH on ETH-quoted curves): the curve completes and a pool opens. Raised and price come from the exact constant-product model rebuilt from the curve's own buy, sell and fee-sweep events (fee and creator tax on both legs). From our own independent capture of public pons v2 factory and curve events on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663), not resold data.

Holder structure

measure	at 3 s after launch	latest snapshot (2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC)
Holders on the curve	24	44
Top holder share	12.8%	8.6%
Top 5 holders share	50.9%	39.5%
Deployer holding share	8.4%	7.3%
Same-block direct-buy cluster share	76.3%	57.6%
Wallets in same-block direct-buy clusters	12	35
Buys sent direct to the curve	82.8%	70.0%
Buys through a terminal router	17.2%	29.9%
Held by terminal-router buyers	10.5%	36.5%
Unique buyers	24	115
Buys tied to a sender	100.0%	100.0%

Holders are wallets with a positive balance bought on the curve (pool trades after graduation are not counted). A same-block direct-buy cluster is a set of wallets that bought directly from the curve in one 100 ms block with at least one other direct buy; matching timing does not establish coordination or common ownership. A terminal router is a trading front end's contract; routing does not identify a human or a bot.

Ring rule: context, not odds

The ring rule published with our paid cards: unique_buyers >= 8 and structure.same_block_direct_cluster_share >= 0.5.

This launch at 3 s: matches. On the latest snapshot: matches.

Curves matching this structure at 3 s dumped 47% of the time in the 09-07 study: a different population, not odds for this curve.

The 09-07 study is our own pons v2 capture of 2026-09-06/07 with the structure read 3 s after launch: 14.5% of launches matched the rule, 47% of the ETH launches matching it fell to 0.6x of their price or less within 60 s (dumped), and their median ended at 0.37x its launch price. Matching timing does not establish coordination, common ownership or intent.

Open this launch

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