FRCST · Forecaster
token 0x788f8012a77a8bd5afabb2763589ae2f17e4ebbc
curve 0xb2d2a2a271d312195601771f2a21e9f840dbd3c1
| Launched | · block 70837853 · tx 0x19fc…2d7f |
|---|---|
| Launchpad | Pons V2 on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663) |
| Quote asset | ETH (native) |
| Creator tax | 200 bps (2%), on every buy and sell |
| Trade fee | 100 bps (1%), on every buy and sell |
| Deployer | 0x8c17…6c1a |
| Outcome | not graduated when we last read the curve (2026-09-24 01:00:00 UTC); last curve trade observed 2026-09-23 21:49:18 UTC |
|---|---|
| Raised at the last state | 0.0000 ETH of the 4.2 ETH graduation raise (0.0%) |
| Peak raised | 63.9% of the graduation raise |
| Price vs launch (exact curve model) | 1.00x at the last state, 6.75x at the peak |
| Curve trades observed | 60 buys, 31 sells |
A Pons V2 curve graduates when its real quote reserve reaches the graduation raise (4.2 ETH on ETH-quoted curves): the curve completes and a pool opens. Raised and price come from the exact constant-product model rebuilt from the curve's own buy, sell and fee-sweep events (fee and creator tax on both legs). From our own independent capture of public Pons V2 factory and curve events on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663), not resold data.
| measure | at 3 s after launch | latest snapshot (2026-09-24 01:00:00 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Holders on the curve | 8 | 30 |
| Top holder share | 31.1% | 10.6% |
| Top 5 holders share | 96.5% | 36.7% |
| Deployer holding share | 19.3% | 6.6% |
| Same-block direct-buy cluster share | 16.6% | 5.8% |
| Wallets in same-block direct-buy clusters | 3 | 9 |
| Buys sent direct to the curve | 87.5% | 88.3% |
| Buys through a terminal router | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Held by terminal-router buyers | 19.3% | 6.6% |
| Unique buyers | 8 | 46 |
| Buys tied to a sender | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Holders are wallets with a positive balance bought on the curve (pool trades after graduation are not counted). A same-block direct-buy cluster is a set of wallets that bought directly from the curve in one 100 ms block with at least one other direct buy; matching timing does not establish coordination or common ownership. A terminal router is a trading front end's contract; routing does not identify a human or a bot.
The ring rule published with our paid cards: unique_buyers >= 8 and structure.same_block_direct_cluster_share >= 0.5.
This launch at 3 s: does not match. On the latest snapshot: does not match.
Curves matching this structure at 3 s dumped 47% of the time in the 09-07 study: a different population, not odds for this curve.
The 09-07 study is our own Pons V2 capture of 2026-09-06/07 with the structure read 3 s after launch: 14.5% of launches matched the rule, 47% of the ETH launches matching it fell to 0.6x of their price or less within 60 s (dumped), and their median ended at 0.37x its launch price. Matching timing does not establish coordination, common ownership or intent.
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Free: Robinhood Chain launch data · Pons statistics · label rules · this record as JSON. Pay with USDC by x402 or a prepaid key; prices at /pricing.