loophole tape Robinhood Chain launch record

CHUCK · CHARLIE

token 0xc21a1c5be6b36e9a83dd9ef5d7b37418616c8dde

curve 0x9ebbe3c357a38f3329d87606e2a6968389630e9b

Launched	2026-09-26 22:35:24 UTC · block 73444834 · tx `0xdd9e…9cb6`
Launchpad	pons v2 on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663)
Quote asset	ETH (native)
Creator tax	200 bps (2%), on every buy and sell
Trade fee	100 bps (1%), on every buy and sell
Deployer	`0x1626…0d41`

Verdict by the public rule

Verdict: caution

No avoid rule fired, but the deployer launched 35 earlier tokens on our tape since 2026-09-06 and none graduated; one wallet (the deployer) holds 98% of the tokens bought on the curve (6 holders) (1 more below).

the deployer launched 35 earlier tokens on our tape since 2026-09-06 and none graduated (deployer_no_graduations; base rate: launches 2026-09-12..26 whose deployer had 3 or more earlier launches on our tape and no graduation: 0.29% graduated (n=33,548) against 1.11% of all launches (n=206,842); first launches 1.28%, deployers with an earlier graduation 2.56%)
one wallet (the deployer) holds 98% of the tokens bought on the curve (6 holders) (top1_concentrated; base rate: at 3 s, 82% of ETH launches 2026-09-19..25 with a holder snapshot had a top holder at 50% or more, and 0.89% of those graduated against 2.84% of the rest (n=22,947 / 5,042))
97 min after launch the curve has not graduated and its price is 13% of its peak (1.00x the launch price now, 7.46x at the peak) (collapsed_not_graduated; base rate: of launches not graduated 30 min after launch (2026-09-06..26, n=375,631), 0.31% graduated later)

As of 2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC. The rule, its thresholds and the base rates it rests on are public at /v1/labels (rhc_verdict); it is not odds, not a prediction for this curve and not a safety verdict. The paid curve card gives the verdict at request time with the deployer record and an exact sell check.

Did it graduate? Outcome on the curve

Outcome	still on its bonding curve when we last read it (2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC); last curve trade observed 2026-09-26 23:43:18 UTC
Raised at the last state	0.0024 ETH of the 4.2 ETH graduation raise (0.1%)
Peak raised	69.3% of the graduation raise
Price vs launch (exact curve model)	1.00x at the last state, 7.46x at the peak
Curve trades observed	147 buys, 158 sells

A pons curve graduates when its real quote reserve reaches the graduation raise (4.2 ETH on ETH-quoted curves): the curve completes and a pool opens. Raised and price come from the exact constant-product model rebuilt from the curve's own buy, sell and fee-sweep events (fee and creator tax on both legs). From our own independent capture of public pons v2 factory and curve events on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663), not resold data.

Holder structure

measure	at 3 s after launch	latest snapshot (2026-09-27 00:12:02 UTC)
Holders on the curve	3	6
Top holder share	77.0%	97.7%
Top 5 holders share	100.0%	100.0%
Deployer holding share	77.0%	97.7%
Same-block direct-buy cluster share	0.0%	0.0%
Wallets in same-block direct-buy clusters	0	2
Buys sent direct to the curve	100.0%	95.2%
Buys through a terminal router	0.0%	4.8%
Held by terminal-router buyers	0.0%	0.6%
Unique buyers	4	142
Buys tied to a sender	100.0%	100.0%

Holders are wallets with a positive balance bought on the curve (pool trades after graduation are not counted). A same-block direct-buy cluster is a set of wallets that bought directly from the curve in one 100 ms block with at least one other direct buy; matching timing does not establish coordination or common ownership. A terminal router is a trading front end's contract; routing does not identify a human or a bot.

Ring rule: context, not odds

The ring rule published with our paid cards: unique_buyers >= 8 and structure.same_block_direct_cluster_share >= 0.5.

This launch at 3 s: does not match. On the latest snapshot: does not match.

Curves matching this structure at 3 s dumped 47% of the time in the 09-07 study: a different population, not odds for this curve.

The 09-07 study is our own pons v2 capture of 2026-09-06/07 with the structure read 3 s after launch: 14.5% of launches matched the rule, 47% of the ETH launches matching it fell to 0.6x of their price or less within 60 s (dumped), and their median ended at 0.37x its launch price. Matching timing does not establish coordination, common ownership or intent.

Open this launch

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