loophole tape Robinhood Chain launch record

WIRE · (name not shown: it reads like a link)

token 0xef641b6220a120d6e3194365c0edf6b33f18c4e7

curve 0x54d22769ede1703fddf457e9e1455d5740ab625e

Launched	2026-10-02 03:23:15 UTC · block 77908150 · tx `0xc698…73fb`
Launchpad	pons v2 on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663)
Quote asset	ETH (native)
Creator tax	300 bps (3%), on every buy and sell
Trade fee	100 bps (1%), on every buy and sell
Deployer	`0xce70…7748`

Verdict by the public rule

Verdict: avoid

10 wallets buying direct from the curve in the same 100 ms blocks held 98% of the tokens 3 s after launch (13 buyers in all); when this class is at least 8 buyers and a 50% share, 92.7% of such launches did not graduate and ended near 0.36 of their peak price; on pons v2 such a cluster is often the team's own opening bundle, which the launch call can exempt from the snipe tax (1 caution reason below).

10 wallets buying direct from the curve in the same 100 ms blocks held 98% of the tokens 3 s after launch (13 buyers in all); when this class is at least 8 buyers and a 50% share, 92.7% of such launches did not graduate and ended near 0.36 of their peak price; on pons v2 such a cluster is often the team's own opening bundle, which the launch call can exempt from the snipe tax (ring_class_3s; base rate: our 2026-09-06/07 study: 14.5% of launches matched, 47% of those dumped, median terminal multiple 0.37x; refresh on ETH launches 2026-09-19..25 with a 3 s snapshot (n=28,147): 6.5% matched, 7.3% of those graduated against 0.81% of the rest, and the ones that did not graduate ended at a median 0.36 of their peak price)
109 min after launch the curve has not graduated and its price is 18% of its peak (1.00x the launch price now, 5.71x at the peak) (collapsed_not_graduated; base rate: of launches not graduated 30 min after launch (2026-09-06..26, n=375,631), 0.31% graduated later)

As of 2026-10-02 05:12:02 UTC. The rule, its thresholds and the base rates it rests on are public at /v1/labels (rhc_verdict); it is not odds, not a prediction for this curve and not a safety verdict. The paid curve card gives the verdict at request time with the deployer record and an exact sell check.

Did it graduate? Outcome on the curve

Outcome	still on its bonding curve when we last read it (2026-10-02 05:12:02 UTC); last curve trade observed 2026-10-02 04:06:51 UTC
Raised at the last state	0.0021 ETH of the 4.2 ETH graduation raise (0.1%)
Peak raised	55.6% of the graduation raise
Price vs launch (exact curve model)	1.00x at the last state, 5.71x at the peak
Curve trades observed	608 buys, 622 sells

A pons curve graduates when its real quote reserve reaches the graduation raise (4.2 ETH on ETH-quoted curves): the curve completes and a pool opens. Raised and price come from the exact constant-product model rebuilt from the curve's own buy, sell and fee-sweep events (fee and creator tax on both legs). From our own independent capture of public pons v2 factory and curve events on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663), not resold data.

Holder structure

measure	at 3 s after launch	latest snapshot (2026-10-02 05:12:02 UTC)
Holders on the curve	13	13
Top holder share	14.5%	14.2%
Top 5 holders share	58.9%	57.8%
Deployer holding share	2.1%	0.0%
Same-block direct-buy cluster share	97.7%	96.0%
Wallets in same-block direct-buy clusters	10	39
Buys sent direct to the curve	92.3%	95.1%
Buys through a terminal router	7.7%	4.9%
Held by terminal-router buyers	2.1%	2.7%
Unique buyers	13	76
Buys tied to a sender	100.0%	99.2%

Holders are wallets with a positive balance bought on the curve (pool trades after graduation are not counted). A same-block direct-buy cluster is a set of wallets that bought directly from the curve in one 100 ms block with at least one other direct buy; matching timing does not establish coordination or common ownership, and on pons v2 such a cluster is often the launch team's own opening bundle, bought by addresses the launch call exempted from the snipe tax. A terminal router is a trading front end's contract; routing does not identify a human or a bot.

Same-block buying at 3 s (the ring rule): context, not odds

The ring rule published with our paid cards: unique_buyers >= 8 and structure.same_block_direct_cluster_share >= 0.5, that is at least 8 buyers 3 s after launch and the wallets buying direct from the curve in the same 100 ms blocks (a block with at least 2 direct buys) holding at least 50% of the tokens bought.

Here at 3 s: 10 wallets buying direct from the curve in the same 100 ms blocks held 97.7% of the tokens, with 13 buyers in all.

This launch at 3 s: matches. On the latest snapshot: matches.

When a launch matched this rule at 3 s (at least 8 buyers, and the wallets buying direct from the curve in the same 100 ms blocks holding at least 50% of the tokens), 92.7% of such launches did not graduate and those ended near 0.36 of their peak price (ETH launches of 2026-09-19..25 with a 3 s snapshot, n=28,147); on pons v2 such a cluster is often the team's own opening bundle, which the launch call can exempt from the snipe tax. Base rates over other launches, not odds for this curve.

Why the team's own bundle: the pons v2 docs describe a launch call that exempts up to 32 addresses from the snipe tax "for a team bundling its opening buys across several wallets", and in 63% of the 2,176 launches that matched at 3 s in 2026-09-20..27 most of the cluster's buying in seconds 0-2 paid no snipe tax (measured 2026-09-27 on our tape).

The 09-07 study is our own pons v2 capture of 2026-09-06/07 with the structure read 3 s after launch: 14.5% of launches matched the rule, 47% of the ETH launches matching it fell to 0.6x of their price or less within 60 s (dumped), and their median ended at 0.37x its launch price. Matching timing does not establish coordination, common ownership or intent.

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