LIKELI · Likelihood
token 0x68a5489def02dfea253748fea0aadc7b02944083
curve 0x311536fbcdc88ec63c1872c1574cdc2e61d0d595
| Launched | · block 72484872 · tx 0x465b…ae86 |
|---|---|
| Launchpad | Pons V2 on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663) |
| Quote asset | ETH (native) |
| Creator tax | 40 bps (0.4%), on every buy and sell |
| Trade fee | 100 bps (1%), on every buy and sell |
| Deployer | 0x660d…2cb6 |
| Outcome | graduated: the pool opened at 2026-09-25 19:43:23 UTC, 2.6 min after launch (block 72486450) |
|---|---|
| Raised at the last state | 4.2000 ETH of the 4.2 ETH graduation raise (100.0%) |
| Peak raised | 100.0% of the graduation raise |
| Price vs launch (exact curve model) | 12.25x at the last state, 12.25x at the peak |
| Curve trades observed | 118 buys, 20 sells |
A Pons V2 curve graduates when its real quote reserve reaches the graduation raise (4.2 ETH on ETH-quoted curves): the curve completes and a pool opens. Raised and price come from the exact constant-product model rebuilt from the curve's own buy, sell and fee-sweep events (fee and creator tax on both legs). From our own independent capture of public Pons V2 factory and curve events on Robinhood Chain (chain 4663), not resold data.
| measure | at 3 s after launch | latest snapshot (2026-09-25 21:12:02 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Holders on the curve | 6 | 51 |
| Top holder share | 74.5% | 47.1% |
| Top 5 holders share | 98.0% | 67.0% |
| Deployer holding share | 74.5% | 13.2% |
| Same-block direct-buy cluster share | 0.0% | 55.2% |
| Wallets in same-block direct-buy clusters | 0 | 14 |
| Buys sent direct to the curve | 50.0% | 67.0% |
| Buys through a terminal router | 50.0% | 33.1% |
| Held by terminal-router buyers | 83.5% | 33.9% |
| Unique buyers | 6 | 55 |
| Buys tied to a sender | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Holders are wallets with a positive balance bought on the curve (pool trades after graduation are not counted). A same-block direct-buy cluster is a set of wallets that bought directly from the curve in one 100 ms block with at least one other direct buy; matching timing does not establish coordination or common ownership. A terminal router is a trading front end's contract; routing does not identify a human or a bot.
The ring rule published with our paid cards: unique_buyers >= 8 and structure.same_block_direct_cluster_share >= 0.5.
This launch at 3 s: does not match. On the latest snapshot: matches.
Curves matching this structure at 3 s dumped 47% of the time in the 09-07 study: a different population, not odds for this curve.
The 09-07 study is our own Pons V2 capture of 2026-09-06/07 with the structure read 3 s after launch: 14.5% of launches matched the rule, 47% of the ETH launches matching it fell to 0.6x of their price or less within 60 s (dumped), and their median ended at 0.37x its launch price. Matching timing does not establish coordination, common ownership or intent.
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